Lots of "ifs" for the Colts as they open camp under a cloud of uncertainty. For Ballard and Steichen -- and a lot of players -- this could be the last dance

So many things have to go right for the Colts to repeat their early-season magic from last year, namely the health and productivity of quarterback Daniel Jones.

WESTFIELD, Ind. – This is the Colts’ last dance, the last dance (and chance) for GM Chris Ballard, the last dance (and chance) for head coach Shane Steichen. After five consecutive years of missing the playoffs – and just two playoff appearances in Ballard’s previous nine years at the helm – it’s finally make or break, do or die time, and not a moment too soon. Truth be told, Ballard is deeply fortunate he still has his position, but the new ownership team, led by Carlie Irsay-Gordon, chose to give Ballard and his group one more chance to make it right.

Irsay-Gordon has made it abundantly clear: It’s playoffs or everybody goes.

Nobody knows that better than Ballard who, for some reason that eludes me, was asked if he’d like to sign a contract extension with just one year left on his deal. Kind of an odd question, to be honest, especially given the circumstances, but it did move Ballard to provide a revealing answer.

“Would you sign a contract extension?” he was asked.

“No, I wouldn’t do one,” Ballard said. “I wouldn’t do one. I’m in the last year of my deal. We need to win.”

A pause.

“We need to win,” he repeated.

Is it as simple as playoffs-or-bust? I think it goes deeper than that. I think it’s make-some-noise-in-the-playoffs or bust. Just showing up and losing in the first round should not be enough to save Ballard and Steichen, especially Ballard given his excruciatingly underwhelming 70-78-1 record since taking over the Colts. Indy, which used to ride herd over the AFC South, hasn’t won a division title in 11 years. No playoff victories in eight years.

This has got to be a massive breakthrough, the kind of season that almost makes you forget the previous nine years of mediocrity, and worse.

“We have been very clear with Chris and Shane that giving them another opportunity means that the sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher,” co-owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon said at the close of last season.

Which sounds pretty clear, no?

Surely, Ballard and Steichen feel the heat. Or maybe they don’t. But they know the score.

.For the third or maybe fourth straight year, Ballard was asked about feeling the pressure. For the third or maybe fourth straight year, he kept it in perspective. Pressure, after all, is not knowing where your next meal is coming from, not knowing how you’re going to afford medical treatment. This is football, a game played by millionaires.

“Look, this is my 26th year in the league,” Ballard said. “And as a kid, if you would have told me I was able to work in football and do this for a career, I would have signed up 100 times over.

“Okay, the journey is different for everybody. I’m just a steward in this position. I’ve always believed that, and I’ll always do the best thing for the organization, both short and long term. That’s just how I tick and how I roll, but I don’t – I’m grateful that I’ve always had a job in this league that I have great respect for, and that will never change. The fun to me is the journey. That’s the fun part. Even the hard moments, compared to what other people have to go through, like they’re not really that – excuse my language, like they’re really not that hard. They’re judged rightfully so, which we should. We’re in the public eye, and we should be judged. But I get to do football every day, and I never take that for granted. I won’t ever take one day for granted.

“And look, I happen to be able to do it at the highest level, but I have such great respect for what the game of football gives people, okay? Not just players who play the game, but fans and the moments it makes. It’s an impactful sport. It’s into a fabric of our society, and I think it’s a great thing. I’ll never take one day for granted. So in terms of the pressure, look, nobody puts more pressure on me than myself to succeed. But like, if I’ve learned anything over the years, sometimes you’ve got to enjoy all of it – the good and the bad. That’s the fun part of this. The going through things that are not always easy with people that you care about and you respect. Man, not everybody gets to do that in life. I’ve been very fortunate.”

Every team, even the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, come into the new season with a number of ifs; even the most loaded teams, like the LA Rams, come into the new season with questions and uncertainty.

But the Colts, well, they’re filled with ifs all over the place, not a comfortable spot for a team that has to win – or else.

As always, it starts with the quarterback, Daniel Jones, who is coming off a torn Achilles but is prepared to start Wednesday’s training camp as a full-go. That’s the good news. The bad news is, he’s only stayed healthy for one season in his star-crossed career, that coming in 2022 when he led the New York Giants to a playoff appearance and a post-season victory.

Last season began with such promise, an 8-2 start, the Colts setting offensive records all over the place. Jones turned into a revelation and Jonathan Taylor was the early-season MVP winner. And then Jones got hurt, his game declined, and he ultimately tore his Achilles in Week 14 against Jacksonville. End of season. End of hope. The Colts dropped seven straight and watched their season circle the drain.

There are ifs all over the roster, but this is the most important one. If Jones can stay healthy – for a change – if he can play the way he performed the first nine, 10 games of last season, the Colts have every chance to win 10 games and reach the playoffs. They were that good early last season, until they lost Jones and were that bad.

The good news is, he’s at full-go heading into this camp. There will be no team-imposed limitations. Will he be the same player he was those first two games, especially early in the season? Probably not. Like Tyrese Halburton, who also suffered a torn Achilles, it’s going to take some time to get up to full speed.

The bad news is, the early-season schedule is a bear. If Jones isn’t highly effective, this could be over before it ever starts.

Asked if there will be a post-surgery transition, Ballard said, “Of course. I mean, anytime you go through surgery, there’s always going to be a little bit of a new normal for any player. It doesn’t mean that they’re not great again – just a little bit of a new normal, and you’ve got to work through that.”

He continued. “I remember in Kansas City when he we had Alex Smith, and that’s who Daniel reminds me of. Alex’s first seven, eight years of his career, he had the same M.O, couldn’t quite stay healthy. He had some concussion issues at the end in San Francisco then we got him in Kansas City, he ended up having a really good run. Sometimes it’s a little bad luck. So hopefully we’ve got him in a good spot and he’ll be healthy and playing 17 games on into the playoffs.

The ifs are everywhere.

If DeForest Buckner can return from major neck fusion surgery… He acknowledged Tuesday that he will have to make some adjustments to his style of play. Can he continue to be a guy who routinely demands double teams and opens things up for his defensive-line mates? Good question, one that doesn’t yet have an answer.

If Charvarius Ward can avoid suffering another concussion… He had multiple concussions last season – suffered terribly with them – and thought seriously about retirement. As it is, he’s back, but one more concussion, which is always around the corner in this violent game, and he may very well hang them up entirely.

If Alec Pierce can return off the PUP list sooner rather than later, if this thin wide-receiver room can produce the way Ballard thinks it can… Right now, it’s Pierce, Josh Downs and tight end Tyler Warren, but there’s not much after that. Ballard made it clear Tuesday he’s in the market for a veteran wide receiver who can provide some production and depth.

If Laiatu Latu, the defensive end who had 8.5 sacks in his second season last year, can make the jump to double digit sacks and become the kind of difference maker the Colts expected him to become when he was the first defensive player selected in the 2024 draft. If the Colts can get decent play from the defensive ends opposite Latu. Currently, they’re talking about doing it by committee, which is a slick way of saying they don’t have anybody. Remember all those years with tight ends by committee? Or would you rather not?

If the Colts can find a backup running back to take some of the pressure and load off of Taylor. There’s second-year back DJ Giddens and seventh-round draft pick Seth McGowan. The good, old days of Zack Moss, who performed so well in 2023, are gone. This will be a position, among many, to watch at training camp.

If two rookes, CJ Allen and Bryce Boettcher, a second- and fourth-round pick, can hold up at the two linebacker spots. Ballard seems perfectly comfortable relying on the two young players. Allen, who will start the season on the PUP list, is trying to fill the sizable shoes of Zaire Franklin, who is now in Green Bay.

If Jalen Travis, who played well in Braden Smith’s place for short stretches of last season, can maintain that level or play and be a stalwart at right tackle.

Lots of ifs, starting with the most important if, the one that will go a long way toward determining the fate or Ballard and Steichen – if Jones can stay healthy and productive throughout the season. As we’ve learned through the past decade, without a quality quarterback, you have no chance.

I can see them winning 10 games if the ifs line up properly, if most or all of the questions are answered in the affirmative.

I can see them winning seven games if Jones is hurt or struggles, or if the pass rush fails to change games when a play is most necessary.

This is the last dance for these Colts, even as it related to training camp in Westfield. The organization is moving camp back to West 56^th Street next season and seasons beyond, which is really a damned shame for the fans who make the annual pilgrimage to Grand Park. But these things are not inexpensive. This was a financial decision, pure and simple.

The question, ultimately, is whether Ballard and Steichen will still be at the helm when the team gets back together next year at the practice facility.

Lots of things have to go right.

Lots of ifs.