Dopey Report Card (Colts vs. Texans)
Or, how a missed extra point and some horrendous officiating doomed the Colts.
RUN OFFENSE
The Colts have lost three of their last four games, and during those losses, Jonathan Taylor has only run for 45 yards (vs. Pittsburgh), 58 (vs. Kansas City) and 85 (vs. Houston). Those are truly losing numbers, especially for a team that relies so heavily on its all-world back and the running game. The scary thing is, with Daniel Jones in a diminished state with a fracture in his fibula – it’s limited his mobility in a pretty significant way -- the Colts are going to have to re-establish their running dominance if they hope to stay at or near the top of the AFC South.
Grade: C
RUN DEFENSE
The Texans ran for 108 yards on 32 carries, but for a paltry 3.2 yards-per-carry. Not a big surprise given Houston’s recent struggles running the football. Germaine Pratt, the former Cincinnati linebacker who joined the Colts earlier this year, has been a nice addition, posting nine tackles (five solo), one pass defensed and a forced fumble. He has a pass defensed in four consecutive games, the second longest streak by a Colts linebacker since at least 1999. Not a bad performance, especially considering that DeForest Buckner is still on the IR.
Grade: B
PASS OFFENSE
This is what worries me about the Colts moving forward; Daniel Jones isn’t the quarterback he was earlier this season. A good part of his game is built on a foundation of mobility, but with the leg injury, he’s a bit of a statue and a sitting duck. If this team can’t get Taylor back over 100 rushing yards per game, this is going to be something of a slog. Give the Colts offensive line, particularly the two offensive tackles, Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith, credit for holding up against the two fiercest pass rushing ends in the game, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. They surrendered one sack and five quarterback hits. A mixed day at receiver: Josh Downs had some fine moments and some bad ones. Alec Pierce showed again why he needs to be re-signed. Michael Pittman was quiet.
Grade: C-
PASS DEFENSE
Somebody needs to explain the quarterback rating to me. Jones had a 101.0 rating while C.J. Stroud, who was 22-of-35 for 276 yards and one interception, rated out at 75.4. This was one of the Texans’ most productive games through the air all season. As usual, the Colts had some trouble defending the middle of the field, where tight end Dalton Schultz caught seven passes on eight targets. Colt-killer Nico Collins found himself facing Charvarius Ward after Sauce Gardner went down with an injury and had a productive day with five catches for 98 yards. Big game for safety Cam Bynum, who had six tackles (four solo), one tackle for loss, one pass defensed and an interception. The pass rush could have been a whole lot better, we should mention.
Grade: C
SPECIAL TEAMS
Not much to report here. The Colts lead the league in kick returns, but didn’t have much success there on Sunday. Of course, we have to note that Michael Badgley, soon-to-be former Colts kicker, missed his third PAT since Week 7. If he makes that, the Colts are in a position to kick the game-tying field goal at the end.
Grade: D
COACHING
Nothing jumped out at me on the coaching side of things. This time, Shane Steichen remembered to use Taylor, so that’s a good thing. This will be the biggest challenge of Steichen’s three-year tenure with the team. He needs to find a way to right the ship, especially on offense, where his quarterback is limited and will certainly remain that way for the rest of the season. If this team collapses, there’s no guarantee Chris Ballard and Steichen return yet again next season.
Grade: C
INTANGIBLES
OK, so they’re not in the throes of a collapse. More like a slump, a funk, something. Three losses in four games, and now comes the toughest part of the schedule. As the Colts were running out to a 7-1 record, the national narrative was that they were something of a mirage. Well, here’s their chance to prove they’re more than the painfully mediocre group they’ve been the last two years under Steichen. This is an organization that hasn’t been able to close the deal for a very long time. Stay tuned.
Grade: C-
As always, I love reading your stuff, Bob. However, I have to gripe about something: it always annoys me when journalists/talking heads either don't understand or pretend they don't understand how passer rating is calculated. The formula has been around for over 50 years, and it's not that complicated. I sort of get it if you're really bad at math (but then why bother asking for an explanation?), but you don't need to be able to decipher the mathematical formula to have at least a basic understanding of how it works. It is an imperfect metric that from time to time produces goofy results.
The formula looks at four factors, all normalized (divided by) the number of pass attempts: completions, yards, TDs and INTs. Those four factors each have their own formula, then the resulting numbers are combined to give the final number. Each factor also has its own cap, meaning once you cross that threshold, your rating can't go any higher. For example, I believe the cap for completion percentage is around 78%, so a QB that completes 80% of his passes will get the same score for that factor is a QB that completes 95% of his passes.
I think in this game what swung the QB rating in Jones' favor was his 2 TDs with no INTs vs. CJ's 0 TDs and 1 INT. Failing to throw a TD results in a zero for that factor, which lops off a 25% chunk of your QB rating right away, meaning the best you can do at that point is 118.8. Jones was better in both the TD/ATT and INT/ATT factors, and they were very close in the YDS/ATT factor (7.9 vs. 7.4). The only factor CJ won by a health margin was completion percentage.
They do not have a QB, sadly.
This is a collapse, or will be if they lose Sunday.
Then again, I am the same guy who thought seven wins was a pie in the sky dream heading into week one.